India faces a risk of global isolation
As I write this piece, US President Joe Biden has banned ‘most travel’ to the USA from India to limit the spread of the pandemic. The United Kingdom, Hong Kong, the UAE, Canada have already enforced a travel ban on Indians. Thanks to a disastrous vaccination strategy and an incompetent and clueless central government, India will most likely face global isolation this year.
I won’t cheer for the decline in the number of daily cases in Mumbai this week. I did not cheer when Kerela claimed that it had achieved control over the virus last year. I wasn’t elated when New Zealanders declared that they had stopped the community transmission of coronavirus last year. It is because the world’s narrative is incomplete without travel and migration, and no matter if districts, states or even countries celebrate momentary victory, the virus is here to stay until its spread is restricted around the world.
Most of the experts, policymakers, social sector professionals and government representatives have misread the nature of the pandemic. While we could concede that this is a once-in-a-lifetime crisis, it is still critical to understand the concepts of transmission and virology. The only way to stop the transmission of this virus is by establishing herd immunity, and the only way to develop it is through vaccination. No matter how much people argue that we could achieve herd immunity after infection, the fact remains that such an approach is unethical and risky. India needed a robust vaccination strategy, planned well in advance, and executed by prioritising densely populated regions and, more importantly, the urban pockets. As I continue writing this piece, India has vaccinated hardly 3% of its population. The government is in denial, and its supporters are arrogant and ignorant as usual.
Vaccinating a large population enables us to limit the spread of the virus. Limiting the spread of the virus allows us to prevent its mutation, that is, the virus acquiring a new form. A careless and callous approach from the government and the lack of a health policy has ignored large scale mass gatherings, giving ample scope for the virus to spread, mutate and give rise to new strains. The ultimate risk from these new virus variants is that they could render the existing vaccine ineffective. Hence, to ensure the effectiveness of the virus, there is a pressing need to ensure that the virus does not mutate and we deal with it in its current form.
The narrative is straightforward. If among a group of hundred, sixty to eighty people have undergone vaccination, they can neutralise the virus and lessen its transmission. Hence, it is imperative to prioritise vaccinating densely populated pockets and ensure that they develop herd immunity.
Our vaccination strategy was flawed, to begin with, as we left out a massive chunk of the population (below 45 years old) who got exposed to the virus, especially in densely populated urban pockets. Seasonal migration, festivals, political gatherings ensured a rapid transmission across rural areas, and the result is for us to see.
Had the central government begun vaccinating everyone across age groups from the top twenty districts and cities in terms of the number of cases, we could have simultaneously begun developing herd immunity and reduced the speed of virus transmission. However, if ever such a thing happens, we will need district-specific or city-wise micro plans instead of a cumbersome, impractical centralised setup. However, we are now in a position where the vaccination rate is incapable of competing with the surge in the number of cases, and herd immunity does not seem possible in 2021.
But are we aware of the economic consequences of this catastrophe?
With close to 95% of its eligible population not vaccinated (and waiting forever due to stupid quality Apps like Cowin, where you don’t get an OTP for days), India will earn a notorious distinction of becoming the covid capital of the world. Countries that are rapidly vaccinating their population and thereby developing herd immunity ensure a decrease in the rate of virus transmission. In India, on the other hand, the virus continues to spread and mutate and presents a risk of rendering the current vaccination ineffective. No country would prefer sending its citizens to a place like India, an epicentre of new virus strains. They will most likely carry this new strain back, and the risk of further infection would follow. Similar would be the reason for not allowing Indian nationals to enter these countries.
I leave it to the experts (not the self-proclaimed social media experts) to analyse the economic consequences of this situation.
For me, the writing on the wall is clear:
India will face a see-saw of ‘lockdown and unlock’ in different parts of the country till her population is sufficiently vaccinated. A lockdown will perhaps bring down the number of cases for a few days, following which the authorities will relax the restrictions. But travel and migration will give rise to a new spike, as most people who mingle won’t be vaccinated. The world will try to race ahead in vaccinating its population, and India would be left behind, gasping for breath, finding it difficult to catch up.
I am sorry to say, but I see we getting isolated from the rest of the world and becoming the covid capital of the world in 2021.
I pray that I am proven wrong.
(Image credits: https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-covid-19-isolation-psychology/)
Aashay Gune
